[md2420]

E-vehicles have two big problems to overcome before they can truly go mainstream. Three if you count the high cost of them. Yes; batteries and a decent distance on one charge is one. The other is how to charge them once they go mainstream. The power companies won't be able to keep up with demand so every home and business will have to have efficient solar cells with battery banks to store the energy.

I think these problems will be solved eventually but I also believe gas and diesel is her to stay for many decades until the transition can happen. I doubt anyone over 40 will see it happen unless they happen to be a centenarian.

This could be solved by blockchain technology. Saw a YouTube vid the other day discussing blockchain and one of the applications could be to power grids and making sure enough power is at the right place at the right time. No overloads, no need for battery banks all over.

 

[53canuck]

Engines have been evolving in low emission directions for quite a few years. Restrictions have been getting tighter and tighter yet the manufacturers of new bikes have been keeping pace. In fact, tuning is getting better and bikes more powerful the whole time. Even with the current restrictions you can still buy some pretty good bikes in California.

Up until now the restrictions applied to new vehicles leaving the manufacturers factories. Beginning with Euro 5 in 2020 the restrictions will apply for the life of the vehicle. It's a much harder challenge for the manufacturers due to normal wear and tear. Control units will have to be able to adjust the tuning of a bike with 50,000 km on so it meets the same emission restrictions of a brand new bike. More sensors, converters and weight will also add to the price. I'm sure they'll do it but at what cost? Weight? Torque? Speed? Purchase price? Interesting times ahead and we may see some bikes no longer available in tightly controlled market places.

I certainly don't see gasoline engines disappearing in our life-time although the motorcycles may end up being cost prohibitive for many.

 

[Ghostrider25]

Engines have been evolving in low emission directions for quite a few years. Restrictions have been getting tighter and tighter yet the manufacturers of new bikes have been keeping pace. In fact, tuning is getting better and bikes more powerful the whole time. Even with the current restrictions you can still buy some pretty good bikes in California.

Up until now the restrictions applied to new vehicles leaving the manufacturers factories. Beginning with Euro 5 in 2020 the restrictions will apply for the life of the vehicle. It's a much harder challenge for the manufacturers due to normal wear and tear. Control units will have to be able to adjust the tuning of a bike with 50,000 km on so it meets the same emission restrictions of a brand new bike. More sensors, converters and weight will also add to the price. I'm sure they'll do it but at what cost? Weight? Torque? Speed? Purchase price? Interesting times ahead and we may see some bikes no longer available in tightly controlled market places.

I certainly don't see gasoline engines disappearing in our life-time although the motorcycles may end up being cost prohibitive for many.

And here is the other angle, though not related to emissions... The bikes that make the kind of power from the factory that we all want are so expensive to insure that you have to walk away anyway. Friend of mine, a younger guy, wanted to pick up a S1000RR but had to walk away because the insurance was going to be... are you ready for this... one thousand dollars a MONTH. And this is a guy who is single, has a clean record and has been riding for years with no accidents, tickets, nothing. I couldn't believe it. Again, maybe this is just a dumbsh!t Kalifornia thing, I dunno. Scumbag insurance companies.

I have to say that as I get more advanced in years my thirst for horsepower isn't quite as strong as it used to be. I sometimes wonder if there is something I can do to get more out of the Triumph, but she is pretty good as is and I enjoy riding it in its current form, so maybe I will just leave well enough alone. Do I still want that ZX-14R/ H2SX SE? Hell yeah I do. But even if I could afford to buy one, which I can - I probably won't be able to afford the f*cking insurance. And I am an older guy with a clean record. Scumbag insurance companies...

 

[iabob]

I don’t think gasoline is going anywhere in our lifetimes. Actually what I think we will see in the 5-10 year time frame is it’s going to get very cheap. I’ll explain my reasoning. I have this love/hate relationship with the EPA. Yes they go to far but also yes they do fill a need. I think my sig line illustrates the hate side. But, because of the EPA cities like Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York have breathable air. Places like London and Beijing which have not had 30-40 years of epa style emissions regs do not. These two cities, and maybe others, are now forced to take even more extreme measures to try and clean up. They both have outright bans on IC engines set to take effect in the next few years. This means every major auto manufacturer is going all in on zero emissions, non ice vehicles. They have to because they need to sell in those major Euro and Asia markets, which means investment like we’ve never seen before, which means better product at lower prices, which will go even lower when the manufacturers gain economies of scale by selling the technology everywhere (here) and not just in Europe and Asia.

And that’s just retail residential cars. I also think we’re going to see rapid changes in the American (and others) commercial fleet. Where I work we are set to take delivery sometime in the spring of seven new all electric city busses. This will be a test fleet but the potential is huge. Electricity is a lot cheaper than diesel and electric motors require much less maintenance. Over the life of a commercial vehicle the savings could be significant, as well as the drop in fuel use. Imagine how many hundreds of thousands of city busses, school busses, beer trucks, food service delivery, package delivery, and local freight trucks are in use in the U.S.

So in the very near future millions more users will not be using gas or diesel, lower demand + higher supply = lower prices. Even in the long term if almost all transportation moved away from fossil fuels, they’re still very easy to manufacture. Today I can go to a Power sports supplier and buy 5 gallon cans of leaded racing fuel. Yes it’s expensive but it can still be had 40 years after it’s been available at the pump. Heck, when I think about it if we had to we could always replace the fuel lines on our motorcycles to something alcohol safe and distill our own fuel.

 

[slickvic]

Yep I can see the oil companies folding up because the world went electric. This will happen soon.

 

[kaitiff]

Most of the big oil companies have diversified, they call themselves ENERGY companies now.. fossil fuels are a dead end at some point.

Providing power to electric vehicles will be a booger for a bit.. but I think the grid is growing up too. Kind of a forced evolution. When the cost of solar gets cheap enough and good enough you'd be stupid NOT to have panels in your house. I've been waiting myself; my wife has a Chevy Volt and loves it, 53 miles on electric before the gas engine has to come on so at least 80% of her driving is done electric. If I put half a dozen panels up at my house I could basically charge her car daily for 'free'. I realize the all electric cars need a lot more juice to get full but her battery is only around 18 KW/hrs, so it's not hard to get it charged. Solar panels have gotten better and cheaper, but there's a lot of room for improvement in both areas.

At the mall nearby they've put up a free solar charging station. The station has a battery bank that the panels charge up and if you have an electric car you merely pull up to it, plug in and top off while you're shopping. Free. The local hospital has charging cords now dispersed around the parking lot, again, for free. I would imagine it will start being more commonplace to have charging cables available at your work, so while you're working you can plug in and top off for the drive home. I don't see a lot of places where they offer to put gas in your car while you're at work.

 

[iabob]

Most of the big oil companies have diversified, they call themselves ENERGY companies now.. fossil fuels are a dead end at some point.

Providing power to electric vehicles will be a booger for a bit.. but I think the grid is growing up too. Kind of a forced evolution. When the cost of solar gets cheap enough and good enough you'd be stupid NOT to have panels in your house. I've been waiting myself; my wife has a Chevy Volt and loves it, 53 miles on electric before the gas engine has to come on so at least 80% of her driving is done electric. If I put half a dozen panels up at my house I could basically charge her car daily for 'free'. I realize the all electric cars need a lot more juice to get full but her battery is only around 18 KW/hrs, so it's not hard to get it charged. Solar panels have gotten better and cheaper, but there's a lot of room for improvement in both areas.

At the mall nearby they've put up a free solar charging station. The station has a battery bank that the panels charge up and if you have an electric car you merely pull up to it, plug in and top off while you're shopping. Free. The local hospital has charging cords now dispersed around the parking lot, again, for free. I would imagine it will start being more commonplace to have charging cables available at your work, so while you're working you can plug in and top off for the drive home. I don't see a lot of places where they offer to put gas in your car while you're at work.

I don't think electricity generation will be a booger. The population of the US is well over 300 million. In 1950 it was just over 150, less than half as many people. In 1950 not every home was air conditioned with a TV set in every room. Cooking was done with gas, no such things as microwaves, yada yada...there was a lot less electricity being generated in 1950 than there is today. We've had no trouble expanding generation.

Fracking for oil has produced so much natural gas that building a new natural gas powered generating station is a simple solution. So is going green. Here in Central IA we're getting over 60% of our electricity from wind. Another wind farm is already in the works to push us over 80%. Over a million people and businesses are served by this utility. The advantage solar and wind are gaining is that it's super easy to expand capacity. Buy an easement (farmers make about 5k annually for every wind turbine) and add ten more turbines adds a lot of capacity to a local grid.

We also have those free charging stations where I work, at the local grocery stores, and other commercial places. It's a nice gimmick to get someone to choose that particular establishment, but I don't think it's much more than that. As cars are moving to 300+ mile ranges on a charge it's really not that important to plug in at the grocery store for 30 minutes. One charge already lasts a weeks worth of driving and the cost to the homeowner is like 3-5 dollars for the "fill up". So from my perspective, if I'm plugging my car in at home once a week for a cost of five bucks, I'm really not that concerned if I get an extra 50 cents worth of juice by plugging in away from home.

I think the interesting thing will be road tripping or commercial long haul. A Tesla rapid recharging station will give about 200-240 miles worth of range in 20 minutes. That's not far off from what we currently spend at a gas station when we're on the road, because we always go in, use the restroom, buy a coke, etc. so if we get some uniformity in the plugs and the chargers I can foresee service stations having an electric cord right next to the gas pump. Swipe your card and for ten bucks (gotta have some profit) you plug your car in, do your business, come back out and keep motorin. Truck stops same thing.

 

[Bueller]

Vote RIGHT and tell them to stop this EPA buill**** across the board.

 

[nickr914]

I think it's bull****, volcanos, rocket launches, many things that nature does(including cow, and termites farts) kill the atmosphere..

Well, some states your supposed to get a stock catalytic converter if yours ****s, you know some cars they go for upwards of 3k before labor??? So cut em out, weld in new ones... Upside down..... Do they do the same job ya, why do you need a specific one, I donno...

I can't see inspections going back to the hose on the tail pipe, and if the bike is tuned within spec(flash tuner) they shouldn't give a **** O2 sensor working *check*.....

My mechanic friend gives me **** because I've been doing **** to my bike, I told him when it comes to that, I can make my bike look stock again....

 

[bikendad]

I think you're expectations and forecasts are a bit off. 250 miles on a bike? How many bikes running a gas engine can do that right now? How many people would even want a bike with that kind of range, considering the size the fuel tank would have to be? If they can get something closer to 100+ miles on a charge, w/ a recharge time of < 1hr (probably closer to 20 min or less in reality) and do THAT in something less than 10 years then I don't think there'll be any ass-kissing going on. ICE engines aren't going to just disappear in our lifetimes, but you can bet they won't be mainstream.
I really enjoy riding my bikes. I really enjoy having an engine, like a big twin that we all have. BUT, if you can give me a 2 wheeled vehicle that can carry my ass cheaper, lighter and last longer with less to break or need maintaining.. I'll bite. I've thought for years about something between a bicycle and a motorcycle with decent range for a cheaper price for commuting. Hell most of us would be able to do with 70 or 80 mile range if it charged fast enough and the price was affordable.

Sorry but 100 miles isn't going to cut it. It's going to take atleast 150-200 miles and a 5-10 minute full re-charge time.

 

[kaitiff]

While that might be ideal, it might take a bit to get there. I do think we WILL get there.. but it's not going to happen in the next 5 minutes. I will say that if the get the cost down even at the current range and recharge limits you'll see a LOT more of them being sold. Look at the new Tesla.. it's already seriously impacting the sedan market because they finally have an electric car that can give comparable service with a comparable price. Electric motorcycles will do the same, it's inevitable. They aren't going to convert everybody, but bring the price of an electric MC down to sub-10K with 100+ miles on a charge and they WILL sell.

 

[iabob]

While that might be ideal, it might take a bit to get there. I do think we WILL get there.. but it's not going to happen in the next 5 minutes. I will say that if the get the cost down even at the current range and recharge limits you'll see a LOT more of them being sold. Look at the new Tesla.. it's already seriously impacting the sedan market because they finally have an electric car that can give comparable service with a comparable price. Electric motorcycles will do the same, it's inevitable. They aren't going to convert everybody, but bring the price of an electric MC down to sub-10K with 100+ miles on a charge and they WILL sell.

Zero motorcycles have a >200 mile range prices starting at about 8500. Of course the model with the options I like is closer to 15k, and when you mix Highway with city driving and a happy right wrist that range will fall from the 220 to probably more like 150 mile range. Their current rapid charger isn't as fast as Tesla's, 10-15 minutes will get you about 30 miles of range, an hour will get you closer to half a full charge. This probably covers about 90% of motorcycle riders. Yes there's always a guy that commutes 200 miles each way to work. But I bet at least 90% if not more riders ride <150 miles a day. Especially if it's fun time leisure ridingwith friends, 150 miles in and a guy has used 90% of his charge, meh, better stop at the Quicky Mart for 10 minutes of charging on the way home. The tech only gets better form here, not worse, so I don't think it will take 5 years. It will get better from here on out every year.

I think the mistake a lot of people make is assuming that this means gas powered motorcycles are being replaced. I don't see it that way. Harley is releasing the Livewire next year and it doesn't replace a single model. It's an addition. Just like we didn't start out on 900 lb cruiser/tours young people today (or old people sizing down) start on something else. Today's 20 something lives in a downtown loft and doesn't want a car. Buying gas, getting oil changes, parking...is a pain. But if they can get an e-bike that's an easy expansion of freedom. They play, maybe commute on nice days, have an option to go places mass transit doesn't go. They fall in love with 2 wheels. 20 years later they live in the suburbs, kids are growing up, thoughts of motorcycles enters their minds. Now they want to get a big new Harley like their other friends who go on longer weekend outings.

 

[Ghostrider25]

That is the niche that electrics will fill for now - urban mobility and short commute duty. Zero motorcycles are OK, but they are small, and in my view not very attractive. And these are among my favorites! True, they start at $10,999, but to get one the way you would want it to be will run you over 14,000. That's a lot of money. These things just aren't my style. But I imagine more potential riders will come around once they are developed a bit more and brought to a more reasonable price point.

 

[bikendad]

Zero motorcycles have a >200 mile range prices starting at about 8500. Of course the model with the options I like is closer to 15k, and when you mix Highway with city driving and a happy right wrist that range will fall from the 220 to probably more like 150 mile range. Their current rapid charger isn't as fast as Tesla's, 10-15 minutes will get you about 30 miles of range, an hour will get you closer to half a full charge. This probably covers about 90% of motorcycle riders. Yes there's always a guy that commutes 200 miles each way to work. But I bet at least 90% if not more riders ride <150 miles a day. Especially if it's fun time leisure ridingwith friends, 150 miles in and a guy has used 90% of his charge, meh, better stop at the Quicky Mart for 10 minutes of charging on the way home. The tech only gets better form here, not worse, so I don't think it will take 5 years. It will get better from here on out every year.

I think the mistake a lot of people make is assuming that this means gas powered motorcycles are being replaced. I don't see it that way. Harley is releasing the Livewire next year and it doesn't replace a single model. It's an addition. Just like we didn't start out on 900 lb cruiser/tours young people today (or old people sizing down) start on something else. Today's 20 something lives in a downtown loft and doesn't want a car. Buying gas, getting oil changes, parking...is a pain. But if they can get an e-bike that's an easy expansion of freedom. They play, maybe commute on nice days, have an option to go places mass transit doesn't go. They fall in love with 2 wheels. 20 years later they live in the suburbs, kids are growing up, thoughts of motorcycles enters their minds. Now they want to get a big new Harley like their other friends who go on longer weekend outings.

You just nailed the problem, it's not a replacement it's an addition. My current XC can commute me to work and back or take a road trip from Michigan to SEVR. The electric bike can't do that. In todays economy I just can't justify buying a commuter only bike, atleast not a new one. When Victory shut down I could have gotten their electric bike for like 6k, I passed.

 

[Ghostrider25]

@bikendad Well, it didn't help that the Brammo Empulse was kind of a waste. The ergos were terrible on that thing and range was not good either. I tried to ride one and aborted because of the ergos; I could not get situated on it. It was an early example and could have been developed and improved if Vic would have survived. But I get your point.

 

[iabob]

I've ridden both and would take a Zero over the Empulse any day. They both are very fun but the Zeros were (are) much better priced with much better range. I have a colleague with one. His daily commute is about 15 miles and he rides his Zero a lot. He also has a nice Ultra Classic he rides sometimes too. I could see myself doing that, two bikes are better than one. I know that for sure.

 

[bikendad]

I've ridden both and would take a Zero over the Empulse any day. They both are very fun but the Zeros were (are) much better priced with much better range. I have a colleague with one. His daily commute is about 15 miles and he rides his Zero a lot. He also has a nice Ultra Classic he rides sometimes too. I could see myself doing that, two bikes are better than one. I know that for sure.

I've ridden both as well and agree that the Zero is much more refined. Surprised that I liked them both, liked the Zero a lot. I made them let me demo the "hot" one, it's pretty quick. I would worry about a bike this quiet in this Detroit area traffic, sorry but people hear those loud pipes next to them when they're on the damn phone! As I said earlier, they're a nice commuter but no replacement for my main bike.

 

[iabob]

I've ridden both as well and agree that the Zero is much more refined. Surprised that I liked them both, liked the Zero a lot. I made them let me demo the "hot" one, it's pretty quick. I would worry about a bike this quiet in this Detroit area traffic, sorry but people hear those loud pipes next to them when they're on the damn phone! As I said earlier, they're a nice commuter but no replacement for my main bike.

Sounds like we're on the same page here. My problem is I don't have the time or the money to get and do everything I want. Right now my Kingpin is in multipurpose, one bike does it all mode. I'd really like to get another Vision or other touring bike and strip the pin back down to solo cruiser hot rod mode. And I'd like a Zero SR mostly for commuting. And I'd like an ADV bike 'cause my friends with them go on dusty dirty muddy trail ride camping trips that just look like super fun. I could go on lol....