[VictoryBros]

Hell I'm a potential cannibal myself, that Chieftain is a beast!!

 

[VictoryBros]

have started threads on this and other forums asking essentially, "what's going to happen to Victory now that all the attention is on Indian".

Again never said the sky was falling or Polaris is paying too much attention to Indian. I want Indian to be succesful, and I like the brands remaining independent. Just suggesting that with Indian having more innovative things could cannibalize more than they estimate.

 

[VictoryBros]

Cannibalization doesn't mean potential Victory buyers, it means current Victory owners trading for a new Indian instead of a new Victory.

Understood, my point is it's not possible to quantify how many potential Victory buyers will get an Indian. Which may not be cannibalization but it certainly distorts whatever Polaris' forecast for Victory's growth.

 

[VictoryBros]

Also that example from your local dealer supports my point that the cannibalization will be higher than single digit. That's 9 Harley owners who were willing to get a different brand, and chose Indian over Victory.

 

[VictoryBros]

I think the single digit cannibalization estimate is pretty close. A few weeks ago I was in Sioux Falls visiting the Vic/Indian dealer. At that time they had already delivered 11 Indian's. Nine of those buyers came off a Harley. If that's typical then Polaris exec's should be dancing a jig right about now. As for trickle down tech, I suspect we'll see some if it but keep in mind Victory and Indian have not yet gone through side by side R&D. Something Polaris has built infrastructure to do. The last all new bike released by Victory was the 2010 Cross release. So Cross R&D was taking place around 2006-2007. Whatever R&D they did since has either been incremental changes to Victory, or it's gone into the Chief. So it would be pretty easy to see a future Cross Country have an electric windshield or throttle by wire but as far as future bike development Victory and Indian now or soon will have separate R&D staff and facilities. So I don't think you'll see very much of what comes out on an Indian now shows up on a Victory later. I think going forward you'll see a lot more differences and simultaneous introduction of new, and separate technologies.

Couldn't agree more. But I have to imagine that 90% of Indian sales won't be from Harley riders lol

 

[VictoryBros]

Not sure how you determined that "the market for Indians seems to be exclusively current Victory riders and people who are either brand loyal to Indian/nostalgia or anti Harley". How have you determined that owners of other brands aren't buying an Indian? Even a few of my Moto Guzzi buddies are now or will be considering going to Indian for their next bike. Perhaps riders from Honda, Yamaha, Kawasaki, Suzuki, Triumph and even BMW riders feel that way as well.

I never said the sky was falling, simply stated that if the innovation on Indians continues to surpass Victory it will drive up the cannibalization. Now as far as your question on how I determined the market ... you answered it. Everyone you listed as considering Indian fall into one of my three catagories ie currently not on Harley's and considering Indian not Victory.