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The Future of Victory

30K views 242 replies 54 participants last post by  kingpin86401  
One thing I find interesting is that Polaris mandates dealers set up a fairly plush Indian environment before bestowing the privilege of selling Indian upon them.

Victorys, on the other hand, are free to mingle among the ATVs, weed wackers, snow mobiles, etc. So I guess Victory is truly the every mans motorcycle...

(Disclaimer - my lawyer advised me to say that this observation is in no way meant to imply Victory has nothing but the brightest of futures, particularly Down Under :biggrin:)
 
Here, this will make it easier for the bar and shield types.. why are there 883 and 1200 Sportsters in HD's lineup? Could it be that they just want to be able to make a more affordable harley for people to ride? Hmm?
Obviously HD made a serious marketing mistake with the Sportster. The existence of two models proves it. There can be no other reason!
 
BS. They sell tons of both models. My guess is that the 883 outsells the total combined sales of all Victory bikes but since Polaris never releases sales numbers I can't prove it.
There can be no other reason. Really? How about appealing to a different rider?
Please disengage your sarcasm filter. The message will make much more sense.
 
So you are saying that the serial number information is incorrect? That sounds like you're the one that wants their own set of facts. I have provided the information, from the Scout service manual, as well was anecdotal evidence from folks posting their VINs. My wife's VIN is over 7100, so I know there have been at least that many Scouts produced. If you have information, not speculation to the contrary, please provide it.
 
No, what I said was you have to make an assumption that the numbers start at 000001 to arrive at the conclusion that Indian sold 9000 Scouts and that using that assumed number leads you to a calculation the the Scout accounts for a huge percentage of the motorcycles sold by Polaris. Do you believe the Scout represents over 25% of the motorcycles sold by Polaris?
I have never seen model specific production data from Polaris. Where do you get this 25% figure? Do you have any supporting data, or is this the same assumption you made from an earlier post now being passed off as fact?
 
I do believe that the Scout could have accounted for 25% on Indian sales, but I can't prove it either way, and neither can you. There were no lines/waiting lists for other Indians. The dealer I bought my 2015 from took at least 64 preorders, a large chunk of a years worth of sales I'd imagine. A quick check shows that HD touring models account for upwards of 44% of HD sales. Apples to oranges I understand, but it shows that a particular model(s) can account for a large percentage of sales.
I've given you data from Polaris regarding the serial numbers. I have given you data that supports ~ 9000 Scouts have been produced. I'm going to shinny out on a limb here and conclude that you are as sure of your assumptions as I am of the facts I have presented, and, call it a day. I'm sure glad you don't like to argue!
 
I will kick myself for continuing this, but...

I can find a Scout on the Indian Forum with VIN 124. There are Scouts that have VINs > 9000. So, based on that, I'm fairly confident that there have been at least 9000 2015/2016 Scouts produced. That's all I'm stating, simply numbers. The instrument has yet to be invented that can measure my indifference to the "Legendary" status of the Scout or any other motorcycle.
 
The Scout service manual states that the last six digits of the VIN is the "individual serial number".

Tenth position is the model year. So I infer that the serial numbers are consecutive regardless of the year. Triumph does it this way as well.
 
Good gracious Mr. Rhett, there sure am some real smart folk out on the front porch. All these big brains, and no one really knows wot's up, but it sure sounds impressive!

Now, I wonder what the future has in store for Victory?
 
I think your biggest mistake is thinking that the general economy affects sales of luxury items like big bikes. People buying luxury toys may back off a little in tough times but most of them are really not affected by those tough times. They keep right on buying and enhancing their toys while their former middle class neighbors are looking for work. Now take it to the next level. The place where people are hurting in the present economy has nothing to do with people that buy bikes. The funny money jobs, what you characterized as enhanced by currency manipulation, are in cyclical industries/businesses that are never well compensated regardless of the state of the economy and they get to suffer more than many in a downturn. Those people were seldom the ones buying a new large displacement bike so their hard times will not significantly affect bike sales. The chronically "underemployed" are not at all people who would buy a Vic or a BMW or an HD so they are not a part of the equation at all.
This does not mean that I don't feel bad for what those people are facing but I doubt it will affect big bike sales very much.
No.
The bad times of 2008/2009 almost cost a good friend of mine his business. He was able to hold on, but he had to part with most of the franchises he had just to stay afloat. Many boat, motorcycle, rv dealers went tits up durning that down turn.
 
I still say it's largely about the name and style. Many HD types never "got" Victory. Too modern, "I don't like the swoopy lines", "the engine is ugly", etc. Victory is always going to be an also ran in that market. Enter Indian. Heritage name, heritage looks, to some degree, heritage performance. And the HDers are lapping it up, and acting just like HDers, buying trinkets, gizmos, tee shirts, blahblahblah. It's clear that Victory needs to find a larger, wider market, away from the traditional cruiser/bagger market. Leave that to Indian.
 
I think the diversity of PII is also it's biggest enemy right now. Stock price wise. The majority of PII revenue isn't motorcycles. With the weather we are having and I'm sure other factors the sale of ORV and snowmobiles is way off. They year end Predictions were really off and that is contributing. They also lost a VP of corporate development recently.
Dare I say it...this is double edged sword.

Polaris' diversity is a plus when year round sales are good. But since the stuff Polaris sells are mostly luxury items they are very sensitive to outside forces like weather. I'll tell you this; dealers that have a variety of products to sell all year, like motorcycles, avt's, and/or snowmobiles, are usually in a better place than those that have just motorcycles. Now, if they're in an area like the southwest, I guessing that's not always the case. But in places that have real seasons diversity is good.