[Muzza]

As far as the future of Polaris, the near term future is going to be a rough road...

"Our outlook for 2016 reflects another volatile year in powersports driven by near-term growth pressures from weak end markets as the threat of a worldwide economic slowdown looms..."

The word "volatile" can be translated "lower expectations".

It will be interesting to see the Harley numbers but given the soft 4th quarter for Polaris I'd be surprised if HD matches it's 2014 number ($6.23B). Their nine month 2015 total was 4.81B so they would have to have a pretty strong 4th quarter to match 2014.

 

[Muzza]

Results overall weren't great but motorcycle sales were up 67%, a small part of their business but very good growth in a tough market. I know it's somewhat relative to size but I'd be surprised if HD post an overall gain in sales for 2015. The reports says the sale of large displacement motorcycles was down high single digits in the 4th quarter...

"overall motorcycle industry retail sales, 900cc and above, declined high-single digits percent in the 2015 fourth quarter"

Harley's end of 3rd quarter results were $4.81B so they may not hit the 2014 number in 2015 given the last quarter was soft for the large displacement market in general.

Quick mate.....

Go log on a Harley site and spread the news.

Trade in values will go sky high!!!!!

 

[Muzza]

Well writen brother.

That's been my experince with the factory dealer from the time I jumped on board....

They will bend over backwards to assist in any way they can..

I've never come across our heard of the same level of care being offered by any other manufacturer....

It's great to see another true blue Vic enthusiast!!!!

Ride safe mate..

 

[Muzza]

Ummm...not to bust up the discussion or anything....but to get back on topic...I was talking with someone the other day who has a long history in the Polaris/Vic/Indian bidness, and we were talking specifically about the amount of space and quality dedicated to the Indian side vs the Vic side. He brought up a few interesting points that helped me understand why things with Vic are the way they are.
He said that regardless of whether he sells 2 Vics or 20 Vics, Polaris allocates him 50 of them per sales year. Period. He also mentioned that for the Victory market, 9 times out of 10 the only sale he's going to make to the customer is the bike itself. The average Vic customer doesn't buy accessories from the dealer, and apparel sales are almost as abysmal. Indian customers are almost completely the polar opposite. Harley customers by a different name, as it were. Shirts, jackets, CHAIRS, for christ's sakes....if it says Indian they want it. Allocation on bikes themselves are at least equal to, if not more than sales demand. The Indian community is a huge part of the way Polaris does business in that regard.
So, having said all that, how can Polaris change things? Even more importantly, why should they? Here's a little bit of my theory....It's well known that in the early days, there was nothing short of a vacuum when it came to parts and accessories. Guys like Jon at Witchdoctors, Coastal Victory, Hot Vic, etc etc etc stepped up from the aftermarket to fill that void. The quality and degree to which they filled that void all but pushed Vic dealers completely out of the picture. I don't think this is a lesson that Polaris suffered lightly, and they are NOT gonna miss the boat this time around on Indian. So, Polaris claims that Victory is going to be the performance side of the equation while Indian will represent the heritage side. The question still remains, do we see Polaris working to change Victory's presence, even within it's own dealerships? Why should they?

Are they working to change the presence ???

Fck yeah!!!!

Man the factory dealers down here share the love of both the Vic and Indian...

The Vic brand is still a baby mate....

Give it time and the merchandise will flow...

Hell I own a dozen Vic shirts and two Vic hoodies!!!

I'll buy some Vic jocks n socks too when they come out!!!

 

[Muzza]

We can stick with economics and motorcycles.

Regarding how Polaris and Harley are acting in now begs the question, how were acting 2007 ~ 2008 just prior to taking the nose dive in 2009 (motorcycle sales cut in half)? We've had eight years of free money and $8 trillion in new debt propping up the U.S. economy. Additional debt in Europe, currency manipulation and phantom demand in China. I don't draw a lot of confidence with respect to the economy in general and the motorcycle industry in particular based on investment by motorcycle companies in R&D and new product development other than a switch in focus to lower displacement, less expensive motorcycles.

All the improvements by Harley and Polaris in the large displacement arena isn't going to accomplish anything for them if individuals don't have the disposable income available to spend on what is in essence a luxury item. The generation replacing the baby boomers are a different breed. How many more of them are living with their parents into their thirties, not investing in 401K's, do not have company pensions, going from one job to another every five years and with income growth that is anemic?

Beyond that I see environmental factors having an increasing impact with the push toward electric intensifying. While there will be increasing investment in battery and electric motor technology I don't see an electric touring model anywhere in the near term future.

In my mind there are two key elements that will determine how Harley and Polaris fare over the next ten years with respect to motorcycle sales, their ability to hold onto market share in what will be a shrinking market (big twins cruisers and touring models) while creating lower displacement (gas and electric) models with higher performance (range and power) and capturing market share in the arena that has the greatest potential for growth, and not as subject to the correction (downturn or stagnation) that is coming in the global economy.

On a side note....

I like your bike mate!!!!!

Does it come in men's?????

 

[Muzza]

Just a couple of quick points.

When you consider the jobs issue you have to look beyond the sheer number and consider the quality of the jobs. One indication of the quality is household incomes that have been stagnant or declining.

The other issue is that some of those jobs have been manufactured in the back of cheap dollars and trillions of dollars in new debt.

Beyond that is the employment in the energy industry which is getting killed now due to increase production (the only source of revenue for many OPEC countries is oil) and decreasing demand.

So I don't view the low unemployment numbers (which need to be viewed in light of the very low labor participation rate) as a sign of a health economy supporting a health future for Victory or Harley given the very serious and systemic problems facing the U.S. And global economies.

Everytime I see your name appear I cringe... Then I think of this song....

This one's for you 2edgy...

 

[Muzza]

The main reason for the production of smaller capacity bikes was to venture into the Chinese and Indian markets where motorcycles form the basis of their transport needs....

The upside spin off is it may also appeal to the female and new entrant rider... Smart move..

One only needs to looks at the success of the scout and Harley Street in India for proof.

The new 1200 Vic won't be a low level entrant bike but a higher value performance oriented monster that will appeal to those chasing the need for speed...

Release the Kraken...

 

[Muzza]

Amen brother!!!!!!

 

[Muzza]

That said, having spent 30 years in marketing and engineering, I

Why not go forth and multiply and impart that wealth of knowledge upon your fellow Harley brethren???

 

[Muzza]

You start this post with "I feel" so let me clarify, I'm not having this discussion for the sake of argument or in any way to bash the Scout. It was one of the bikes I considered in my search for my next bike. I read the reviews and probably watch ever video on YouTube about the bike. But after sitting on one at the dealer I realized it didn't fit what I was looking for which was more in line with the Gunner, Highball and Street Bob.

That said, having spent 30 years in marketing and engineering, I'm a numbers person. I'm not impressed by marketing superlatives but by numbers that support the superlatives. Triumph900 mentioned VIN numbers and individuals checking in with numbers in the 9000 range. Do we assume the numbers started at 000001 and the 009000 represents 9000 Scouts sold?

Polaris 2014 motorcycle sales (Indian, Victory and Slingshot) was $349M. Bump that up by 20% for 2015 and it's $418M. At $10K per bike (round number for a Scout), selling 9000 bikes would be $90M. That would mean almost one quarter of all the motorcycle revenue (Indian, Victory and Slingshot) came from the sale of Scouts and the number of Scouts sold would be more that 25% of all the motorcycles sold by Polaris given the significantly higher pricing of the other bikes they sell. I don't think so.

This isn't a matter of me being argumentative but trying to put some flesh (hard numbers and facts) on the bones of motorcycle marketing superlatives. I'm not a Harley fan boy, a Victory fan boy or an Indian fan boy. Actually I'm a motorcycle fan boy. I think the Scout is an awesome bike although it's not personally for me an the type of riding I do. I hope both the Victory and Indian lines do well (couldn't care any less about the Slingshot) because I'll be considering both of them in my next go around (and Harley). But I don't buy into the hype from any company raving about their numbers unless they are willing to reveal the numbers.

To my cheese wedge brothers that may have taken offense to anything I've said, I really did not become a member of this forum to bash anybody or the motorcycle they ride. I came here to learn about the Victory line, share out common love for riding and maybe offer some input based on my experience. That's it, no ulterior motive, no axe to grind and no chip on my shoulder.

 

[Muzza]

I would say that you can safely take the word failure out of the equation for the Scout. The bike is a hit. Does it have shortcomings? Yes it does. The suspensions is average at best. And it's small; but that is my problem, not the bike's!

But make no mistake, this bike is selling well, and will most likely continue to do so. So it is appropriate that the Scout is in the Indian family. It's a good fit. All this does is free up Vic to come to market with a bike that is bigger, more powerful, more modern in design and better handling. Which I believe is the plan. We will just have to wait for 2017 to see it. And that is OK. Far better to take your time and do it right than rush things and fail.

With the concept bikes being released last year I'm sure we were told that the production version would be unveiled this year?? 2017 is for ma Vic to unvail some more goodies....

 

[Muzza]

Is this it?

Same guys but a different flick...

A scout is a scout without a doubt!!!!

 

[Muzza]

There's a mini doco that I've been searching for to post that gets played at my factory dealership.. It covers everything from the history to the design of the scout and interviews all the major players throughout the whole process I.e. filmed during the initial design phase through to release....

The scout was never a Vic!!!!!

 

[Muzza]

Muzza I gotta love ya brother. One year on Victorys bar bike and you're an expert on all things Victory. Gotta admire your enthusiasm though. Hopefully it catches on!

I'm pushen two years brother.... Bikes are bikes man but some are just sooooo much better than others....

 

[Muzza]

To find out where Indian riders come from mosey over to the Indian forums and read the posts. Almost exclusively former Harley and Vic owners. I'm former Victory and there is something just different about the Indian. One major difference is the feeling that the company cares more about their product and the customer than Victory does. No comparison really. I also figured that Victory was no longer that important to Polaris when they took the Victory entry level bike and made it into the Scout. It even looks like a Victory. Now that is cannibilzation at its worst.

Coffeedave, brother of Redvic..

Let's see, speed records at Bonneville,
The empulse and TT, pro stock drag bikes, project 156 and pikes peak... See the flavour!!!!

And you have touched the new 1200 so you can bet your balls it's a cannibalised Scout..

So what's the 111???? Nothing freedom in its design surely!

The company cares more about Indian?
Pigs arse....

Polaris has built a magnificent line of Indians and got them nicely settled...

So what are you gonna do when the Indian line up remains primarily unchanged over the next several years???

Abandon them crying the company only cares about Victory?

Now the perceived care factor of which you spoke unfortunately comes to down to the face of Polaris, the dealer and that is a concern ( small minority of half bakes)... Having said that, we are seeing dedicated Victory/Indian dealerships sprouting up all over the world... Nicccceeee.

Victory, from strength to strength...